The banking regulator was uncomfortable with the runaway pace at which consumer credit was growing.
The Indian rupee is expected to trade between 80 and 84 against dollar in the first three months of 2023 with support from overseas inflows though worsening current account deficit (CAD) and reduced interest rate differential between the US and India pose challenges. According to a Business Standard Poll of 10 participants, most said the rupee could gain strength in January due to foreign inflows, and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is not expected to allow the currency to depreciate ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1. The rupee depreciated 10.15 per cent in 2022, its worst performance since 2013 as the war in Europe and the interest rate increase by the US Federal Reserve prompted investors to flee emerging markets.
Amid sustained weakness across categories, the Indian stock market remained below the trillion-dollar mark for the third consecutive day today, as the total valuation of all listed companies slipped further to $944 billion.
Top gainers in the Sensex pack on Friday included IndusInd Bank, Bajaj Finance, M&M, SBI, ICICI Bank and Vedanta, rising up to 1.90 per cent.
The Indian economy is projected to grow at 6.3 per cent in current financial year aided by investment and domestic demand. According to a World Bank report released on Tuesday, India continues to show resilience against the backdrop of a challenging global environment. In India, which accounts for the bulk of South Asia region, growth is expected to remain robust at 6.3 per cent in 2023-24, India Development Update of the World Bank said.
With economic activity still to reach pre-pandemic levels, the RBI may slow down the pace of rate hikes until next year to quell soaring inflation while supporting growth, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says in its latest report. The Manila-based multilateral funding agency has raised the inflation forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2023 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 5.8 per cent. For the next fiscal year too, the forecast has been revised upwards to 5.8 per cent from 5 per cent earlier.
A muted revenue performance in the September quarter and weak management commentary weighed on the stock of consumer major Marico which shed 8.5 per cent to Rs 542 from its intraday highs on Tuesday. The company indicated that demand trends were similar to that of the June quarter with instances of increasing food prices and below-normal rainfall distribution in some regions impeding the anticipated recovery in rural demand.
The sector may be overcrowded with a fair number of large players and the entry of the Adani Group through its two key acquisitions, followed by the takeover of majority stake in Sanghi Industries via Ambuja Cements. Since every major player is in expansion mode, there could be a capacity surplus and hence, price wars.
The rupee depreciated further by 13 paise to hit a new life-time closing low of 82.30 against the US dollar on Friday as a firm American currency and risk-averse sentiment among investors weighed on the local unit. Moreover, a negative trend in domestic equities and elevated crude oil prices sapped investor appetite, forex traders said. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 82.19, then fell further to 82.43. It finally settled at an all-time low of 82.30 against the American currency, registering a decline of 13 paise over its previous close.
Dwaipayan Bose on how index funds play a key role in the diversification of portfolios and help manage risks
The United Nations on Wednesday pared down India's growth forecast by 20 basis points to 5.8 per cent for 2023 calendar year, citing higher interest rates and risks of recession in the developed world weighing on investment and exports. "Economic growth in India is projected to moderate in 2023, with higher interest rates weighing on investment and slower global growth weakening exports," it said in its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects report. The report has projected global trade to contract 0.4 per cent and the world economy to grow at 1.9 per cent in 2023.
Amid cooling raw material prices, the crude-oil linked companies, which includes paint and tyre firms, have been on a roll over the past one year. Shares of related companies have gained up to 84 per cent, as against a 14 per cent rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. Analysts, however, believe stretched valuations in both these sectors could trigger a de-rating.
'Gold prices thrive on volatility and more so when the stock markets trend downward.'
A day after the promoters of Adani Group prepaid $1.1 billion loans, one of the group's listed entities - Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) - announced that it would prepay loans of up to Rs 5,000 crore by next month-end so as to improve its financial metrics. The company is targeting an earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) of around Rs 15,000 crore this financial year. This was revealed by Karan Adani, chief executive officer (CEO) and whole-time director of APSEZ, while announcing the September-December 2022 results.
Sensex lost 184 points to trade at 23,878 and the Nifty has dropped 55 points to quote at 7,254.
Industrial metals (ferrous and non-ferrous) suffered great volatility once the Ukraine War began in February 2022. First, there was a sharp price rise due to fears of supply disruption, followed by weak global demand. China's weakness and rolling lockdowns have hit production and demand.
In the longer-term, analysts expect IHCL to see revenue CAGR of 15 per cent between FY23 to FY25 and Ebitda CAGR of 20 per cent in the same period. Analysts are seeing targets of around Rs 375-Rs 380 for the stock, which is a significant upside from the current Rs 313.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will have to do a tight-rope walk between staying fiscally prudent and general public expectations of lower taxes and a wider social security net, while at the same time firing the engines of the economy before general elections. Sitharaman will on Wednesday present her fifth straight Budget at a time when the economy is slowing due to global headwinds and specific sectors need attention. In the run-up to the Budget presentation, expectations are rife that she may tweak income-tax slabs to provide relief to the middle class and increase spending on the poor through programmes such as the rural job scheme while ramping up financial incentives for local manufacturing.
There have been several positive signals in Bharti Airtel with revenue market share (RMS) growth, better visibility of profits from Africa, and enough free cash flow to pursue deleveraging. Airtel's 4G and 5G data subscriber net additions were 5.6 million in Q1FY24, and 24.5 million in the last 12 months. Airtel currently has 230 million data subscribers on 4G/5G, which is about 70 per cent penetration of its base of 339 million subscribers.
Cement companies posted mixed figures for the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24). Volume growth was robust at 17 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) - on an aggregate basis - for 15 cement companies, with revenue growth at 15 per cent. Aggregate earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) were up 8.8 per cent Y-o-Y and 1.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q).
The rupee depreciated by 37 paise to close at 79.62 against the US dollar on Thursday despite sustained foreign capital inflows and a positive trend in equities. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 79.22 and saw an intra-day high of 79.22 and a low of 79.94 against the American currency. It finally ended at 79.62, down 37 paise over its previous close of 79.25.
All Sensex components ended in the red. SBI was the top loser, followed by ONGC, Axis Bank, ITC, Titan, Bajaj Auto, TCS and IndusInd Bank.
In the April-June quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), growth in sales of FSN E-Commerce Ventures (the parent company of Nykaa) decelerated to 24 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), and 9 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), compared with 34 per cent in the previous quarter, due to a decline in the beauty & personal care (BPC) and fashion division's gross merchandise value (GMV). But Nykaa claimed it gained market share in both divisions. The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margin of 5.2 per cent expanded 120 basis points (bps) from a year earlier.
India's third-largest pharmaceutical company by revenue, Cipla, is up for grabs in a three-way fight between Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Dr Reddy's Laboratories (DRL) and private equity (PE) giant Blackstone. Analysts say it is more likely for a strategic investor like Torrent or DRL to acquire Cipla than a PE firm, which may not derive healthy returns at Cipla's current market price (CMP) after the recent gains.
'And a majority will be in the top-end vehicle range.'
Novelis' results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) disappointed investors and as a result, the share price of Hindalco (Novelis is a 100 per cent subsidiary of Hindalco) has slid. The non-ferrous metals major is suffering from the impact of a down-cycle in aluminium and copper, as well as the slowdown imposed in Europe by the Russia-Ukraine war. Prospects for the firm look gloomy, at least for the first half (H1) of FY24.
Investors are showing some interest in the downstream energy cycle. Refiners and marketers, especially the public sector (PSU) oil marketing companies (OMCs) could see a revival of marketing margins. Lower crude oil and gas prices may also improve margins in industries like paints, logistics, synthetic fabrics, plastics, and fertilisers. In the medium-term, however, there could be a supply overhang affecting OMCs as new refining capacities are scheduled to be commissioned, especially in China, and this may lead to a drop in the refining margins as capacity would be surplus to demand until and unless there's a pick-up in global growth.
The Nifty IT has been one of the worst-performing indices on the bourses this calendar year. Rising concerns of a potential global recession, which investors fear can dampen demand for export-facing domestic information technology (IT) giants, have sent the index down over 30 per cent on a year-to-date basis. By comparison, the Nifty50 Index has shed 2.8 per cent during the period, reveals data by ACE Equity.
Zomato has lost over 9 per cent thus far in calendar year 2023 (CY23) and has underperformed the S&P BSE Sensex that has slipped nearly 5.3 per cent during this period. Despite this underperformance, analysts at HSBC think that the stock can hit Rs 87 going ahead - up over 64 per cent from the current levels. The food delivery industry, wrote Yogesh Aggarwal and Abhishek Pathak of HSBC in a recent note, has slowed considerably in the last few months.
Foreign investors pumped in Rs 11,119 crore in the Indian equities in December, making it the second consecutive monthly inflow, despite increasing concerns over the re-emergence of Covid-19 cases in some parts of the world. However, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have turned cautious in recent days. The inflow in December was much lower compared to Rs 36,239 crore invested by FPIs in the month of November, data with the depositories showed.
Moody's Investors Service on Wednesday affirmed the ratings of two major Indian IT services companies, Tata Consultancy Services Limited (TCS) and Infosys. In two separate statements, Moody's also retained stable outlook for both the companies. Moody's expects Infosys' revenues to climb by around 13 per cent for the financial year ending March 31, 2023, but moderate to around 8 per cent in the next 2024 fiscal.
The retail industry witnessed robust top-line growth for the greater part of the previous financial year, but demand has started to show signs of fatigue seen in the January-March quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) of 2022-23 (FY23), especially in the apparel and innerwear segments. Jewellery, however, has managed to hold on to demand in the quarter. "In the discretionary space, demand moderation in urban markets is expected to impact the quick-service restaurant and apparel categories the most, while paint, luggage, and jewellery should see resilient growth," Systematic Institutional Equities observed in its preview of the sector.
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) disappointed the Street with its results for the January-March quarter of the 2022-23 financial year (Q4FY23) due to weaker core engineering & construction (E&C) segment performance by the engineering giant.' Although core E&C order inflows for FY23 rose 19 per cent year-on-year (YoY), with orders from railways, metals and water sectors, margins in the infrastructure segment crashed to all-time low. Revenue at Rs 58,300 crore was up 10 per cent YoY but somewhat below expectations.
IT services firms' revenue growth in the fourth quarter will be affected by macro-driven headwinds, lower working-days, and the fact of the three-month period being low season. Analysts are expecting FY24 growth to be muted. Revenue growth will decline 600-700 basis points to 10-12 per cent for FY24, said a CRISIL Ratings report. The 10-12 per cent growth rate is a fall from the 18-20 per cent expected in FY23 and around 19 per cent growth in FY22, the highest in eight years, said the CRISIL Ratings report.
The headline for corporate profit growth has been very encouraging in the July-September quarter (Q2) of 2023-24 (FY24), with the combined net profit of listed companies up by 38 per cent year-on-year. However, the earnings distribution has been very lopsided, with most of the growth coming from public-sector oil-marketing companies (OMCs), banks, non-bank lenders, automobile (auto) companies, and cement producers. By comparison, companies from information technology services, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), retail, and consumer durables were disappointed, experiencing a sharp slowdown in net sales growth and a relatively muted increase in reported net profit.
India's GDP growth will slow down to 5.5 per cent in FY24 from the 6.9 per cent expected in the current fiscal 2022-23, a Swiss brokerage said on Wednesday. The slowdown was attributed to slowing global growth and tightening of monetary policies in the report by economists at UBS India. It said India will be among the "lesser affected economies" in the world, but made it clear that the world's fifth largest economy is not immune from global headwinds.
The National Company Law Tribunal's (NCLT's) declaration that Zee Entertainment is bankrupt adds a new measure of uncertainty to the proposed merger with Sony. Three entities -- Aditya Birla Finance, IndusInd Bank and YES Bank -- have filed appeals in the NCLT for recoveries of Rs 130 crore, Rs 90 crore and Rs 540 crore, respectively. The money was borrowed by a related party - Siti cable - and not returned. Zee was a corporate guarantor.
Without factoring in the rupee-dollar exchange rate, the index has been touching new all-time highs repeatedly.
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A weak rupee makes imports costlier, including oil and other commodities.
The parlous state of Asia's third largest economy was reflected in the rupee's 18 per cent plunge against the dollar to all time lows since May, when signals emerged that the US Federal Reserve was considering winding down an easy money strategy that had benefitted emerging markets like India.
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